Crude Oil Alert | Table O Contents

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TST Market Alerts

Note. All ISO-8601 Trading Weeks start on a Monday and end on a Sunday

Upcoming Day Event and Time

Event. Crude oil rolls from July (N7) to August (Q7)

Why This Matters

Rule. To protect against overt risk and to avoid slippage at execution time, all TST traders should ONLY trade the most active month of an underlying contract.

Therefore, on the Friday before the “roll date” up to and including the time before the trading session for the “roll date” of Monday, June 19th begins, you may per Ashley “Roll now, you do not have to roll from Friday”.

So, even on the Sunday before the “roll date”, you may “roll now”.

Action. Roll your long ( or, short ) positions from the expiring July (N7) contracts into the next batch of August (Q7) contracts.

Other Notable Calendar Event No. 2 For the Week

Crude Oil Inventories will be announced (EIA) at 9:30 AM CDT.

Caveat. All TST traders long or short the CME-NYMEX Crude Oil (CL) Futures Contract(s ) or the CME-NYMEX E-mini Crude Oil (QM) Futures Contract(s) are precluded from having an open position, short or long, going into the announcement from (1) minute prior to the announcement period to (1) minute after the announcement period.

In other words, you must be “flat” during the “two-minute window” of one minute before the announcement ( up to and including the announcement period ), plus one minute thereafter ( from the close of the announcement period plus sixty seconds ).

If you find yourself long or short either of the designated futures contracts going into the “two-minute window” timeframe on the day of the announcement, please close out your position immediately.

In addition, please refrain from opening up any new positions in the underlying commodities contracts during the announcement period.

You may place your position back “on” after sixty (60) seconds have elapsed since the close of the announcement period, market conditions allowing, assuming there is enough time left in the daily trading session to do so.

Why It Matters

Discussion. The level of Crude Oil inventories in storage directly influences the price of petroleum products, and therefore indirectly impacts growth and inflation.

Generally, a “fat” inventory reading correlates to a weakening in price, and therefore an indirect reduction in inflation expectations.

Expectations of future growth in GDP are also hampered by a “fat” inventory reading.

Why? Because a “fat” inventory reading begs the question … “Why aren’t motorists and corporations drawing down the current stock of crude?”

Other Notable Calendar Event No. 3 For the Week

Natural Gas Inventories will be announced (EIA) at 9:30 AM CDT.

Caveat. All TST traders long or short the CME-NYMEX Natural Gas (NG) Futures Contract(s ) or the CME-NYMEX E-mini Natural Gas (QG) Futures Contract(s) are precluded from having an open position, short or long, going into the announcement from (1) minute prior to the announcement period to (1) minute after the announcement period.

In other words, you must be “flat” during the “two-minute window” of one minute before the announcement ( up to and including the announcement period ), plus one minute thereafter ( from the close of the announcement period plus sixty seconds ).

If you find yourself long or short either of the designated futures contracts going into the “two-minute window” timeframe on the day of the announcement, please close out your position immediately.

In addition, please refrain from opening up any new positions in the underlying commodities contracts during the announcement period.

You may place your position back “on” after sixty (60) seconds have elapsed since the close of the announcement period, market conditions allowing, assuming there is enough time left in the daily trading session to do so.

Why Is This Important

Discussion. The level of Natural Gas inventories in storage is an indicator of the change in supply from last week’s reading to this week’s reading.

Generally, major economic releases such as the Natural Gas inventories reading may cause extreme volatility and large price swings.

Therefore, placing trades right into the bullseye of an announcement period are very difficult to trade consistently and profitably.

Hence, because of this increased risk, all TST traders should be “flat” during the “two minute window” as described above.

Forex Disclaimers

Futures and Options trading have large potential rewards.

But, also large potential risk.

Dear Reader:

You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets.

Please DO NOT trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

This disclaimer is neither a solicitation, nor an offer to Buy or Sell futures, stocks, or options on the same.

No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document, if any.

Note. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC Rule 4.41

Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations.

Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading.

Also, because the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.

Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight.

No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.

TST Trading Deadlines for ALL Traders and ALL products

There are approximately 250 trading days per year per the annual Goldman Sachs 10-k report filed with the SEC.

The Weekend. Please be “flat” on ALL trades by 3:10 pm CDT Friday ( 1:10 pm MST )

Caveat. Trading is prohibited over the weekend until Globex re-opens once again on Sunday afternoon at 5:00 pm CDT ( 3:00 pm MST )

You may carry a position “overnight” from 5:00 pm CDT Sunday until 3:10 pm CDT the following trading day on Monday.

Please be “flat” on ALL trades by 3:10 pm CDT Monday ( 1:10 pm MST )

Note. Trading is prohibited during the afternoon “recharge” period from 3:10 pm CDT to 5:00 pm CDT on Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays.

You may carry a position “overnight” from 5:00 pm CDT Thursday until 3:10 pm CDT the following trading day on Friday.

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Note. The above synopsis was derived from an article written by Blank Author [1].

  1. A Narrative of Psychology by Blank Author, Jan #1999

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